A Lancashire expert has warned that half of the UK’s fish and chip shops could close as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and other price increases.
Chorley’s Andrew Crook, president of the National Federations of Fish Friers, says a combination of rising oil prices, Russian fish tariffs, VAT hikes and rising energy bills could lead to the demise of the UK's national dish.
The UK recently announced a tariff on Russian whitefish and oil in an attempt to cripple Putin’s war.
Ukraine is also major producer of sunflowers which is why the price of oil used in deep fat fryers is surging.
Mr Crook, who also owns Skippers of Euxton fish and chip shop in Chorley, says this could lead to the “biggest threat the fish and chip industry has ever faced”.
He said: “It’s going to put some extra pressure on the industry.
“We were already in a crisis post-pandemic and fish was the most expensive it’s ever been – and that’s before the effect of the conflict.
“I don’t think the government were aware of just how much fish came in from Russia; about 60 per cent of white fish in the world has Russian origins."
Mr Crook also warns that potato prices could also increase in the coming months as we "get a lot of fertilizer from Ukraine and Russia".
Beyond the Russia/Ukraine war, he also warned the proposed VAT hike will only do more damage to the industry.
Currently, VAT levels are set at 12.5 per cent to help the recovery of fragile hospitality and leisure firms.
However, there are plans to increase this to 20 per cent in April.
Andrew said: “The whole of hospitality is going to suffer but we are getting the brunt of it as fish and chip shops operate on even tighter margins.
“We are campaigning for VAT to remain at 12.5 per cent and we also want to sit down with the Treasury to discuss a way forward.”
Andrew says there are around 10,500 fish and chip shops in the UK and if nothing changes he predicts half will be forced to close in the next six months.
He said: “Before the Ukraine crisis I thought we might lose 3,000 in the next three months. If nothing is done to help I think we will lose 4,000-5,000 in the next six months.
“More shops will close without question. Businesses that market themselves on having massive portions will have to stop.
“It’s looking quite bleak and it’s quite worrying – and this is only the start.”
Umberto’s fish and chip shop in Preston is just one victim of rising prices.
Earlier this month they announced a temporary closure and said: “Due to the rapidly rising costs of energy, packaging and ingredients I have had to make the difficult decision to temporarily close the shop.
“It's not a decision that has been taken lightly, every option was considered but the reality is I would have to apply a price increase of 30% to the entire menu.
“At a time when families are being squeezed financially I thought this would do more harm than good in the long run.
“I want to thank all the staff for all their hard work and all the loyal customers that used the shop week in and week out.
“I have no doubt the shop will be open again soon.”
Mr Crook added: “Umberto’s closed because they just couldn’t stay open. They were always known for their affordable food and there is just no way they will be able to open cheap now.
“It was impossible for them to get their prices up to where they need to be.
“This is just the start and I am seeing other fish and chip shops up and down the country beginning to close.”
He said we need to support our local fish and chip shops in recent weeks or risk losing them.
“If people don’t use their fish and chip shops they are going to lose us. For us, fish can be just as expensive as a steak and it needs to stop being thought of as a ‘cheap meal’ because I think those days are gone.
“It’s the dish of the nation and we are a huge part of the British culture. It’s so important for the culture and morale of the country that we are here.
“From Good Friday to ‘chippy teas’ it’s so embedded in our traditions and we don’t want to lose that – it will be really sad.”
Some East Lancashire fish and chip shops have also spoken out about the coming weeks and say they are “worried” about the future of their businesses.
Deryn Regan, manager of West End Fish and Chips in Oswaldtwistle, said: “I think most chippies across the UK are feeling the impact of the war, as well as other general price hikes.
“The price of our cod has gone up 50 per cent in recent weeks, oil is up 85 per cent. It’s a constant source of stress for our trade at the minute.
“We are worried – there are so many factors to consider and we are just hoping that the public will continue to support us and others in the trade.”
Deryn said she has already been forced to increase prices in her shop.
She said: “We have already been forced to increase our prices and I wouldn’t be surprised if we had to do another one in the coming months.”
Ibrahim Zaairi, owner of The Queen Vic Fish and Chips on Preston New Road in Blackburn, said: “Of course I am worried about my business. It is a big concern as it’s our daily bread.
“Prices for oil, fish and other things are extortionate - the price hikes already impacted us even before the Ukraine war.
“We are being urged to buy batches of food and oil in advance in order survive because the market is so hostile and the prices are so high.”
He said fish prices have increased by 60-70 per cent in recent weeks and has been told that prices could double in the coming months.
He said: “Fish prices in the last six months has never been stable it has just been going up and up.
“It’s not just the price of fish, running costs of gas and electricity have also been increasing and could cripple the industry.”
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